Kamala Harris is the current Vice President of the US (Image: Getty)
Just seven states could decide the upcoming US election.
In these states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – neither Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump has a secure lead, with polls suggesting that the candidates are within two points of each other.
This means that nearly 100 of the 538 Electoral College votes are yet to be decided and will not be certain until the election itself.
The number of electoral votes a state has equals its number of Senators (always two) plus its number of Representatives in the House of Representatives, the latter being dependent on the population.
Here is everything you need to know about these swing states. Both campaigns have been targeting undecided voters in these areas.
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Donald Trump was US President between 2016 and 2020 (Image: Getty)
Michigan
FiveThirtyEight polling shows that Michigan has a margin of 0.4 percent for the Democrats and 15 electoral college votes.
In the Great Lakes State, US President Joe Biden won in 2020 by 150,000 votes. The state backed Trump in 2016.
It has the US’ largest population of Arab-Americans and has become a centre point for activism against Israel’s war in Gaza, with 100,000 Democratic primary voters declaring they were “uncommitted” in February.
What is a swing state and what does it mean for the US election?
Around 240 million Americans are eligible to cast their ballots in this year’s nail-biting US election, but with the race so tight, the next president could be decided by a relatively small number of voters.
Political analysts are pointing to a select group of “swing states” that could tip the balance in this fierce battle for the White House.
Arizona carries 11 electoral votes, Georgia has 16, Michigan holds 15, Nevada offers 6, North Carolina brings in 16, Pennsylvania boasts 19, and Wisconsin has 10. Altogether, these states account for a crucial 93 electoral votes. But which way will they swing this time, and who won in 202?
Even a narrow victory in one of them could have a dramatic impact on the final result, so Express Politics explores what might happen in these swing states on November 5.
Pennsylvania
FiveThirtyEight polling shows Pennsylvania has a margin of 0.3 percent for the Republicans and 19 electoral college votes.
How Pennsylvania votes is often seen as a predictor of who will win the country – the candidate who has won the state in 10 of the last 12 presidential elections landed in the White House.
It has been inundated with campaign stops with the two candidates and their running mates making more than 50 appearances there since mid-July.
The economy is a top issue here – the price of groceries has risen faster in this state than in any other, according to market intelligence provider Datasembly.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin has a margin of 0.1 percent for the Democrats and 10 electoral college votes.
The Badger State picked the winning presidential candidate in both 2016 and 2020, by a margin of little more than 20,000 votes each time.
It’s been suggested that marginal states like this are where the biggest impact could be made by third-party candidates like the Green Party’s Jill Stein.
Democrats have been fighting to see Stein removed from the ballot in Wisconsin, claiming the party did not comply with state election laws, and has also filed an elections complaint against Cornel West, a left-leaning academic.
JD Vance is Donald Trump’s running mate (Image: Getty)
Arizona
FiveThirtyEight polling shows Arizona has a margin of 1.9 percent for the Republicans and 11 electoral college votes.
The Grand Canyon State voted for Biden in 2020, their first time backing a Democrat candidate since the 1990s, with the now-President winning by just 10,000 votes. This state is a focal point for both immigration and abortion access.
Despite border crossing dropping in recent months, Trump promises to carry out the “largest deportation operation” in US history.
Arizona Republicans previously tried and failed to reinstate a near-total ban on terminating pregnancies. These bans are opposed by most human rights groups.
Tim Walz is the candidate for US Vice President chosen by Kamala Harris (Image: Getty)
Nevada
Nevada has a margin of 0.2 percent for the Republicans and six electoral college votes.
The Silver State has backed the Democratic candidate in the last several elections but Republicans are currently just ahead, polling suggests.
It has the highest unemployment rate in the country, with one of the slowest post-Covid recovery periods for growth and jobs.
North Carolina
North Carolina has a margin of 1.3 percent for the Republicans and 16 electoral college votes.
The Tar Heel State backed Trump in 2020, with a margin of 74,000 votes. At an outdoor rally in July, he told the crowd it was “a very big state to win”.
It borders Georgia, and shares some of its top electoral concerns, as well as those in Arizona, another Sun Belt state.
US Election 2024 guide
Election Date: Tuesday, November 5, 2024
Democratic Nominee: Vice President Kamala Harris
Republican Nominee: Former President Donald Trump
Running Mates:
- Kamala Harris is running with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz
- Donald Trump is running with Ohio Senator JD Vance
Previous President: Joe Biden (Democrat), who chose not to seek a second term.
Additional Elections: Voters will also elect Congressional candidates for the Senate and House of Representatives.
Next Presidential Term: Begins January 2025, lasting four years.
Visit our full guide on the US Election 2024 to learn more.
Georgia
Georgia has a margin of 1.5 percent for the Republicans and 16 electoral college votes with a population of 11 million people.
The state voted for Biden in 2020 and is where Trump is facing one of his four criminal prosecutions for election interference.
He and 18 others are accused of conspiring to overturn his defeat to Biden in the state. The case will not be in court before the election.
