The US election is nearly upon us as millions of Americans prepare to choose their next President on November 5. But with less than two weeks to go, you’ll be hearing a lot about a handful of key states that could decide the result, with polls consistently pointing to a close contest.
That’s because the United States has the Electoral College, a convoluted system in which candidates compete for electoral college votes gained by winning each state, rather than trying to get the most votes across the country.
Some of these states, the seven key “battlegrounds” or “swing states”, become the overwhelming focus of campaigning, with Democrats and Republicans already confident of retaining solidly “blue” and “red” areas of the country.
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, who is seeking a second term, will be putting all their energy into turning any undecided voters in these states in the days ahead.
Here’s all you need to know about the Electoral College and what candidates need to do to win.
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The electoral college was established by America’s Founding Fathers in the Constitution, partly as a compromise to satisfy those who in favour of election of the President by a vote in Congress and backers of an election by a popular vote of qualified citizens.
There were also fears that a popular vote would empower populist demagogues, and reaching an agreed system in America’s infancy was a fraught process.
In the end it was decided that there would be intermediaries that would be neither picked by Congress nor elected by the people, with states appointing independent “electors” who would cast the actual ballots on behalf of citizens.
Each year, these electors vote for the president and vice president, though their votes reflect the popular result in the state.
The American people vote for this slate of electors who are appointed by their state’s political parties.
Today, there are 538 votes up for grabs in Electoral College, with each state allocated a certain number of votes based on the number of seats they have in the House of Representatives, plus their two senators.
States give all their electoral college votes to whoever wins the poll of ordinary voters in the state. This means if a candidate clinches 50.1% of the vote in California, they’ll be given all 54 of its electoral college cotes.
As a result, bigger states have more Electoral votes. California, historically a solid blue state delivers a whopping 54, while Texas, a majority Republican state, has 40.
Meanwhile, states that are more sparsely populed, like Wyoming, Alaska and North Dakota, as well as Washington DC, have a minimum of three.
All 50 states, as well as the District of Columbia, have electors.
Maine and Nebraska, which split their electoral votes are the only exception. The rest are “winner takes all”.
The candidate who hits the 270 electoral vote mark first – a majority of the 538 – wins the US election.
Given how tight the race is, thought has been given to what might happen in the event of a tie between Harris and Trump.
Though a stalemate in the Electoral College is unlikely, there are mechanisms in place to choose the new President should both finish on 269.
A majority win can also be prevented by a strong third party or independent candidate winning enough votes to stop candidates getting to 270.
In the event of a tie, a “contingent election” would follow in which the newly sworn-in Congress selects the President, while the Senate would choose the VP.
This has occurred only three times in American history. The last one was in 1836, when electors in Virginia refused to vote for Martin Van Buren’s vice-presidential nominee Richard Mentor Johnson.
