The people of Washington state haven’t officially spoken yet, but new polling revealed what they might actually say.
The hottest-button issue on the Nov. 3 ballot is Initiative 638, a measure that would ban biological boys from competing against girls in K-12 sports. And Wednesday, data suggested that it has a strong chance of passing.
Let’s Go Washington, the group behind the initiative, released numbers showing that 56% of 7,500 of likely Washington voters would vote “yes” on I-638, 24% would vote “no” and 22% were undecided. In terms of support by political affiliation, the poll showed that 73% of Republican respondents support the measure, along with 48% of Democrats and 52% of independents.
(From left to right) Female athletes Frances Staudt, Bailey Andersen and Sadie Sullivan sit before sharing their stories about competing against biological males and sharing locker rooms with them at Fairness in Girls’ Sports rally in Vancouver, Washington. (Derek Shook for OutKick)
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Keep in mind, this was not an independent poll, and the full methodology — including margin of error — has not been disclosed. But these data don’t suggest a photo finish on the initiative come November so much as a rout.
“We’re not surprised by the results, because it’s exactly what we’ve been hearing from people when we’re making calls, knocking on doors and talking to people at events,” Let’s Go Washington communications director Hallie Herzberg told OutKick. “The opposition is loud and they’re intimidating and they’re trying to bully people into being quiet, but we’ve seen and heard from people standing with us saying “enough is enough, high school girls are not the villains.”
As it stands, 27 states have laws prohibiting biological males from competing against girls in K-12 sports. But 27 were won by Donald Trump in 2024, and none of those laws were enacted by voters.
So not only could Washington become the first blue state with enforced gender separation in school sports, but also the first where voters themselves put that policy into place.
This was a point of emphasis at an I-638 rally in Vancouver, Wash., last Saturday, where five female athletes who had to compete against biological males and/or share a locker room with them shared their stories. One of them spoke about two mustached boys flexing in the mirror of the girls locker room before her basketball game, while another detailed how the WIAA — Washington’s high school sports governing body — launched an investigation for harassment and bullying because she said “you’re a man” to an 18-year-old male her team had to compete against.
Former NCAA women’s soccer player Sophia Lorey gives speech at ‘Save Girls Sports’ rally. (OutKick’s Alejandro Avilla)
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But it wasn’t just current or former Washingtonians speaking up on the issues — it was women from around the country. Because they know that I-638 passing could set off a chain reaction across the nation.
“If we can show that a state like Washington has enough common sense to stand up for the girls and women, then any other state can do so as well,” said student-athlete Frances Staudt. “I think we need to know that it’s possible to be done.”
Opponents of the initiative aren’t arguing that girls competing against boys is perfectly fine. Instead, they’re resorting to scare tactics — warning that I-638 could subject girls to “invasive genital inspections” as early as kindergarten. But the initiative contains no language regarding such inspections, and as XX-XY Athletics founder Jennifer Sey has pointed out, none of the 27 states with enforced gender separation in sports are performing these exams. Why would it be different in Washington?
Former competitive swimmer Riley Gaines speaks at a news conference following the House vote on H.R. 28, the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act, at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 14, 2025. The House passed the legislation 218 to 206 to prohibit federal funding for K-12 schools that include transgender students on women’s sports teams. (Getty Images)
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Biological males taking over girls’ spaces in sports is no phantom issue in the Evergreen State. Last year, trans track athlete Veronica Garcia won the Washington state title in the 400 meters. Last week, OutKick reported that a Washington family requested a SCOTUS injunction after their daughter was allegedly assaulted by a trans athlete last year. And this fall, Camas High cross country runner Logan Mihailoff switched from the boys team — where he finished 76th in a September event — to the girls team midseason. He has already won a varsity meet against the girls.
These are precisely the kinds of situations that Let’s Go Washington says I-638 is intended to prevent. Which is why Herzberg cautioned supporters not to take the poll results for granted.
“It’s not a shoo-in by any means,” she said. “We don’t feel like we can just relax now and ride the wave. There’s still a ton of work that needs to be done.”
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Don’t underestimate the fear this bill’s foes can instill in voters. It’s what they specialize in. But this poll suggests Washingtonians are standing up to the bullies. Sanity may indeed prevail.