MILWAUKEE — The stage is now set for a long-distance chess match.
The Atlanta Braves announced Max Fried as the starter for their series against the Kansas City Royals that begins Friday, and decided to save Cy Young contender Chris Sale for an elimination scenario. The next move was on the Mets, who took the safe route and decided on left-hander Sean Manaea for their own series-opening game against the Milwaukee Brewers.
There are no easy answers when it comes to the pitching rotation this weekend for the Mets. Manaea has to pitch Friday to be able to make a start on regular rest in a potential Wild Card game. But the Mets still have to get to the postseason. Three games in Milwaukee this weekend and a likely doubleheader Monday back in Atlanta makes it difficult to plan for a best-of-three series that would begin one day after the doubleheader.
As of Thursday, the San Diego Padres still lead the NL Wild Card standings, the Mets (87-70) are 3.5 games back of San Diego, tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for second place. The Mets own the tiebreaker over Arizona, but they don’t have the tiebreaker against the Braves (86-71), who are one game outside of the standings.
Those standings will be largely unchanged until the weekend. The Mets and Braves are both off Thursday with Hurricane Helene forcing the Monday doubleheader. The Diamondbacks beat the San Francisco Giants in the afternoon and the Padres wrap up a series with the Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday night.
There are so many different clinching scenarios this weekend it’s enough to make your head spin. The Mets could throw their three best pitchers in Manaea, left-hander David Peterson and right-hander Luis Severino, and then leave the doubleheader games to left-hander Jose Quintana and right-hander Tylor Megill. If that’s the case, they burn Quintana for a Wild Card game, but they’d have their three best lined up for the postseason.
However, if the Mets end up needing to win those two games in Atlanta, they might not trust either pitcher. Quintana has been excellent as of late, but he’s had two stretches of volatility this season. Megill has shown improvements this month since his recent Triple-A call-up, but has largely been unreliable throughout his career. If the off-day was still in play, the Mets could piggyback him with someone like long reliever Jose Butto, but without that day off in between series, it’s tricky.
The Braves seem to want Sale facing the Mets next week. There is also a possibility of the Amazins’ facing Spencer Schwellenbach again Monday as well. The rookie righty held the Mets to only one run over seven innings to help Atlanta win the series-opener Tuesday.
If that’s the case, would the Mets throw Severino again? The veteran right-hander didn’t look particularly sharp in Tuesday’s loss, but if gamesmanship is what the Braves are after, the Mets might decide to engage.
It’s highly, highly unlikely that right-handers Paul Blackburn and Kodai Senga would be available Monday. Blackburn seems eager to pitch again, but the Mets don’t seem eager to use him after discovering a spinal fluid leak in his mid-back. It’s late September and stranger things have happened, but it feels safe to say those two will be on the shelf this weekend and into next week.
None of this is optimal for the Brewers either. They lined up right-hander Frankie Montas, Manaea’s former Oakland teammate, for Friday night, but have not announced pitchers for Saturday and Sunday. They might not have anything to play for this weekend with the Philadelphia Phillies having locked up the first-round bye, but they won’t know who they’re playing in the first round until Monday night.
While the hurricane and the league’s lack of proactivity might hurt the Mets the most, they aren’t the only ones affected by this logistical nightmare. It’s a planning headache for all involved. Team travel manager Edgar Suero sure has his work cut out for him.
The pieces on the chess board are moving all around the country, but the next move is still unknown.
