Gage Jump's strong road ERA and Seth Lugo's five straight home quality starts point to under 9 in Kansas City

We are just about three weeks from the official start of the NFL season, and I’m super excited for the opportunity to bet on some pigskin. Before we get to that point, we have about five weeks left of the baseball season. Then the NFL will be in full swing, and the MLB will be looking at the playoffs. In addition, we will get the start of basketball. What a great time! Before we get there, though, we want to get some money in the bank, and we will do that with a game between the Athletics and Royals.

The Athletics are one of the worst teams in baseball, which is a bit frustrating because they made some good progress last year. This season, they are almost 30 games under .500 and have a chance to be the worst team in baseball. I’m not sure there is one single thing you can point at as a reason for the failures. Perhaps it is due to injuries – Nick Kurtz and Shane Langeliers have played fewer than 100 games. Maybe it is that their pitching staff has one of the worst ERAs in the game at 5.47 and a 1.50 WHIP.

Athletics left fielder Carlos Cortes, center fielder Zack Gelof and right fielder Lawrence Butler celebrate the Athletics’ win over the Kansas City Royals in West Sacramento, California, on April 29, 2026. (Scott Marshall/AP Photo)

Today, the Athletics send out Gage Jump to the hill in hopes of maybe lowering that team ERA. Jump is 5-7 for the season with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP, so not much better than the overall team marks. Jump is still young, just 23 years old, so this is mostly a development year for him. He has shown strong performances on the road with a 2.60 road ERA. He has made six road starts this season and has allowed just 10 earned runs on the road, with six of them coming in one game.

The Kansas City Royals don’t have much room to talk, and arguably have been the more disappointing team this season. They are 21 games under .500 this season, but they were expected to win the AL Central division. Even if they weren’t going to win it, they were expected to at least be competitive. They have been playing good baseball lately, winning four of the past five games. Offensively, they aren’t much different than the Athletics, but the pitching has been slightly better.

Kansas City Royals pitcher Seth Lugo throws during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, Md. (Daniel Kucin Jr./Imagn Images)

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Tonight, the Royals send out Seth Lugo to the hill. Lugo is 5-7 for the season with a 4.59 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP. These aren’t the strong numbers that he has put up the past few years. However, he is pitching in the best spot for him. He has a 3.70 home ERA for the year, and he has been better in night games than day games. Lugo hasn’t been great lately, but his home starts have stood out. He has five straight quality starts at home. Athletics hitters are batting .273 against him over 22 at-bats.

Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is congratulated by teammates after scoring a run against the Athletics in the first inning at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento, Calif., on April 29, 2026. (Cary Edmondson/Imagn Images)

The Royals are probably going to win this game, just based on how hot they’ve been lately. The Athletics are also very bad on the road. They are bad overall, but couple that with the Royals being .500 at home, it helps make a case for Kansas City. I’m going to back the under 9 instead, though. Jump has been very good on the road, and Lugo has been very reliable at home lately. Give me the under 9 for tonight.

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