There was no white smoke emanating from the chimney on the thorny issue of allowing western-supplied precision missiles to be used by Ukraine against Russia after Britain’s Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer met US President Joe Biden last week.
Starmer and accompanying British Foreign Secretary David Lammy were there to discuss a number of security issues, but top of the agenda was the lifting of restrictions on the use of such weaponry against Russian territory.
To recap, this has particularly apposite to the deployment of the 190-mile range US ATACMS ballistic missiles and the 155-mile range UK/French Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles, with which the Ukrainians will be able, all things being equal, to strike deep into mainland Russia.
Now, whilst it appears that no such agreement was hammered out between the allies, it is always possible that is has indeed been made, but announcing it to the world would be counterproductive and warn the Russians what was coming. But call me a cynic; I doubt this is the case.
The prospect of “weapons free” being declared for Ukraine has prompted the usual bombast and threats from the Kremlin, but they don’t have a leg to stand on. Not only have they illegally attacked and occupied parts of Ukraine, but they have also just received a shipment of 200 ballistic missiles from Iran which they fully intend to launch at Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Hypocritical doesn’t cover it.
Nonetheless, once again the Biden administration seems to have balked at the prospect. Lammy has since returned to the UK saying that the UK and its allies “will not be bullied by Putin’s shameless grandstanding”, but that’s exactly what has happened – again.
It’s quite obvious that American politicians – those same dead-eyed men (and women) in sharp suits I have written of before – have swallowed Putin’s rhetoric. In Margaret Thatcher-speak they are “frit”, and shame on them for being so. While they dance on the pinhead of petty politics and go home to safe beds, Ukrainian servicemen and women die on the frontlines in the defence of their country. The Americans have blood on their hands.
The paradox is that Putin’s threats show that he really is feeling the pain, and Ukraine being allowed to turn it up even higher has got him worried. He is the one who should be “frit”, not the other way round. The west is practicing self-deterrence which plays right into his pocket.
Ukraine has now using its own indigenous long-range drones to strike deep into Russia with considerable success, but they remain vulnerable to Russian air defences. The advantage of weapons like Storm Shadow and the US ATCMS is that they fly faster, are more difficult to intercept, and carry a greater payload.
So why is Biden hesitating? The first and most obvious reason, already allude to, is that the White House is reluctant to provoke a major response from Putin and escalate the conflict. They believe that Russia seriously considered using tactical nuclear weapons in response to the successful Ukrainian counter-offensive at Kharkiv in September 2022 and that has put the wind up American strategists.
The other possibility is that Biden’s administration sees a possible end to the war as both sides exhaust themselves in attritional warfare which will ultimately bring them to the negotiating table.
Both sides are only too aware that the US Presidential Elections this November could have a major impact on US and western support for Ukraine. Putin will be hoping that Trump will get in – better the devil you know – and pull the plug on Zelensky’s allies’ backing. He’ll be hoping that Trump will demand a compromise settlement which will favour Russia.
For Zelensky who occupies the White House come 2025 is also of the utmost importance. He will not wish any settlement that looks like a freezing of the conflict, locking in Russian gains, and will seek a return to the status quo ante bellum. The Kursk incursion, designed to draw away Russian reserves from more critical parts on the frontline and possibly capture Russian territory for exchange at peace talks, is part of his longer term planning.
But the US and the west sitting on its hands is not a good look for either Ukraine or for the wider global audience. My personal opinion has always been that we should facilitate every means to help Zelensky expel the invaders. The USA and the UK should not be deterred by Putin’s increasingly deranged bluster. If anything it should be the other way around.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
