The west’s fears of escalation has seen limits placed on how Ukraine can use the weapons provided (Image: Getty)
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is completely right in calling for the UK to do more to help in its fight against Russia.
Speaking in his nightly address on Sunday, Zelenskyy said: “Our guys are doing great on all fronts. However, there is a need for faster delivery of supplies from our partners.”
Less than two months ago, Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with the Ukrainian leader in Washington and pledged his unwavering support yet here we are, being called out for failing to get weapons to where they need to be and imposing self-defeating restrictions on how they are used.
For as well as the Kursk invasion has gone for Ukraine, it has not stopped the slow but steady push by Russian forces towards the cities of Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region.
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Until now, UK provided weapons have been given for “self-defence against Russia’s illegal attacks” according to the Ministry of Defence (MOD).
Whilst the wording is ambiguous, it has generally come to mean use in and around the contested border areas and not to be used deep inside Russian territory.
The first meeting between Zelenskyy and Starmer had seemed to have generated an easing of restrictions, with Ukraine’s president claiming that they had been given the go ahead to use UK provided Storm Shadow long-range missiles against Russia.
However, No.10 quickly corrected the Ukrainian president with a spokeswoman saying that the UK’s position remained “unchanged” and that dialogue was “ongoing”.
Storm Shadow missiles, which have a range of 350 miles and a top speed of 621mph, could give Ukraine the flexibility to hit Russian targets in the rear area, particularly the logistical infrastructure that serves frontline troops.
The arrival of tanks and other equipment has been invaluable to Ukraine’s ongoing war effort (Image: Getty)
Since February 2022, western politicians have warned against the risk of escalating the Russian Ukraine war, whimpering in the face of empty Kremlin threats.
The UK dithered when asked to send tanks, only to relent, Germany tied itself in knots over the use of Taurus missiles and NATO dawdled when asked to provide jets before inevitably going so.
Each time, western leaders claim to be showing restraint and lessening the risk of escalating the conflict.
But the fact is, short of nuclear war, the Russians are unable to escalate the conflict even if they want to. Their manpower advantage has been weakened by severe losses whilst the Kursk invasion has shown Moscow’s inability to challenge effectively on two fronts as well as the limited utility of poorly trained conscripts compelled to fight.
Escalation is also not in the interests of Moscow’s allies of whom they have become ever more reliant on in recent years. Beijing would not benefit from being dragged into the conflict and even the ever-reliable Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko has recently called for the two sides to settle for peace.
NEW: Ukrainian forces marginally advanced throughout their salient in Kursk Oblast on August 22.
The Russian military command recently redeployed elements of at least one Russian airborne (VDV) regiment from western Zaporizhia Oblast in response to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk… pic.twitter.com/GTZslvQDIo
— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) August 23, 2024
But what recent months have shown is that Ukraine can only do so much with one arm tied behind its back.
As Russia attacks deep into Ukraine, targeting civilian areas in major cities, Ukraine has thus far been left unable to give Russia something to think about the other way.
Defence does not mean simply engaging with the enemy in the areas they choose to attack. The British Army has six key principles it applies to defence, one of them being ‘offensive spirit’ and whilst attack might not always be the best form of defence, it is always a crucial part.
It restricts the enemy’s freedom of manoeuvre, it sows doubt across the battlefield and it allows you the ability to choose when and where to fight.
To use a footballing analogy, Ukraine’s full backs need to be given license to push on and give the Russian winger something else to think about other than attacking.
Ukraine is believed to have captured hundreds of prisoners of war since their invasion of Kursk (Image: Getty)
Why was the Kursk border so poorly defended? In part because the Kremlin believed that western imposed restrictions would prevent Kyiv from attacking into its territory. This allowed them to mass their best trained, battle-hardened troops towards their main effort in the Donetsk area with a smattering of lesser forces along other parts of its border.
The freedom of Ukraine to attack inside Russia completely alters how the Russian military planners approach the conflict and how they are able to arrange their forces along the border and in deeper areas.
It forces it to prepare for a wider range of possibilities and prevents them from concentrating their best forces in one region whilst leaving others vulnerable.
The concern over escalation is understandable but with hundreds of thousands dead and the war well into its third year, how long is it be before we consider over-restraint to be the thing that is prolonging this conflict?
