Nigel Farage may be trying to upend British politics in much the same way that Donald Trump did across the Atlantic eight years ago – but pollster Sir John Curtice has said direct comparisons between the pair are wide of the mark.
Reform UK is widely tipped to pick up several seats in July 4’s general election, not least Clacton-on-Sea, where Mr Farage himself, now the party’s leader, is standing.
A slew of opinion polls in recent days has shown Reform on the front foot, with one, released by Redfield and Wilton on Monday, suggesting it was neck-and-neck with the Tories on 18 points.
Referring to the 60-year-old’s return to the political fray, Sir John, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, told Express.co.uk: “With Farage arriving on the scene, the polls average saw a three-point increase in Reform’s support.
“That said the Tories were already failing to squeeze the Reform vote, so Farage has just made their position more difficult.”
Asked whether there was a cult of personality building up around Mr Farage, Sir John said: “Farage is better known than Tice and presumably therefore helps in some voters eyes makes Reform look more credible and puts a face on them.”
Sir John, who last week published a detailed analysis suggested a worrying loss of faith in UK politicians among the electorate, continued: “Some of what Farage says does potentially feed into that.
“Certainly people who are unhappy about how we govern or distrust politicians are more open to the kinds of arguments that say that, ‘politicians are failing the people, not listening to the people’s wishes adequately, that big businesses are essentially engaged in a conspiracy and that they’re also not doing people good.
“So those kinds of populist arguments are once somewhat greater resonance amongst those who are unhappy with how we’re being governed.”
Asked what he thought Mr Farage, whose party published its manifesto, entitled Contract for You, on Monday, actually wanted, Sir John said his ultimate ambition was to “replace the Tories” – while stressing: “It will need much more than where he’s at the moment.”
Mr Farage is famously an ally of Mr Trump who has campaigned alongside him at rallies in the United States.
However, asked if the ex-UKIP leader was taking a leaf out of the book of the man who hopes to be re-elected to the White House in November, Sir John was dubious.
He said: “Some people might say that but to be fair Farage doesn’t doesn’t get involved in conspiracy theories.
“Farage is not claiming that the Conservatives are using the apparatus of the state in order to do him down.
“He is a free citizen who is not being in any way being hunted for legal matters by the state. So this is a somewhat different position.
“He’s got political arguments which are controversial but they are political arguments rather than claims of a great conspiracy.
“He’s not as populist as Trump, put it like that.”
Mr Farage did recently accuse some pollsters of wanting to “suppress” support for his party, but Sir John suggested this was not in itself unusual.
He explained: “It’s not as unusual as you might imagine political parties to complain about the practices of polling companies.
“If political parties think that they can put pressure on the polling industry to their advantage they will put they will apply it.”
Speaking at a campaign rally in Clacton yesterday, Mr Farage said: “Something very exciting is going on.
“We are even or just ahead of the Conservative Party in the opinion polls.”
He added: “We will, I’m quite confident, by early next week clearly be in second place in the opinion polls.
“And this matters – and it matters because for democracy to function, you need to have opposition.”
