New Jersey primary voters will head to the polls to pick candidates Tuesday to succeed scandal-tarred Sen. Robert Menendez as his son battles to turn back a strong primary challenge for his congressional seat.
With the elder Menendez facing trial on federal bribery charges, Rep. Andy Kim is expected to cruise to victory on the Democratic side after First Lady Tammy Murphy dropped out of the race and cleared the field for him.
AP Photo/Seth Wenig
Rep. Andy Kim greets supporters outside the Bergen County Democratic convention in Paramus, N.J., Monday, March 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Seth Wenig)
On the Republican side, it’s anybody’s guess who will come out on top in a dog fight between South Jersey businessman Curtis Bashaw, an establishment favorite, and right-wing insurgent Christine Serrano Glassner, a strong supporter of former President Donald Trump.
In nearby Hudson County, first term Rep. Rob Menendez Jr., the senator’s son, hopes to fend off a strong Democratic challenge from Hoboken mayor Ravi Bhalla in the Hudson County-based district once held by his dad.
Bhalla, a reformer, has sought to tie the first-term congressman to his allegedly crooked father and is counting on big margins in Hoboken and Jersey City, where new residents are much less loyal to the once-powerful Democratic machine.
The races offer the first test of the impact of a recent court decision outlawing the so-called “county line” system, which gave candidates picked by local party bosses much more favorable placement on primary ballots, a huge electoral advantage.
Tammy Murphy was counting on support from most of those county leaders, but her bid fizzled as Kim mounted an aggressive grassroots campaign and also challenged the legality of the county line system. After Murphy dropped out, a federal judge sided with Kim and ordered Democrats to use a more neutral ballot design.
Kim, who hopes to become the first Korean American to serve in the U.S. Senate, would be a strong favorite to win in November over either Republican candidate, although Bashaw is considered a better bet to keep the race within shouting distance given the Garden State’s moderate profile.
One wild card is the possibility that Sen. Menendez could run as an independent. Even though he is polling in the single digits, the disgraced lawmaker could potentially siphon some votes from Kim, especially in his home turf of deep blue Hudson County.
At the top of the ticket, both Trump and President Biden are expected to roll over token opposition. Pundits will watch if a significant chunk of Republican primary voters oppose Trump after his conviction on 34 felony counts in the Manhattan hush money case, especially in affluent suburban areas where he has lost some support.
The same dynamic has played out in GOP primaries nationwide even after Trump’s main rival Nikki Haley dropped out of the race months ago, with upwards of 30% of Republican voters in some suburbs opposing him. Voters are also heading to the polls in New Mexico, Montana and South Dakota, where Trump should win overwhelmingly.
In Newark, Democratic voters may be surprised to see the late Rep. Donald Payne Jr. still on the congressional primary ballot.
The longtime congressman died after the deadline to replace him had passed so a special primary election to fill out the remainder of his term will be held on July 16. A crowded field of a dozen Democrats are vying for what is nearly a certain ticket to Congress from the very deep-blue district.
