Ursula von der Leyen has been warned of two massive hurdles which could trip her up as she seeks a second term as President of the European Commission.
And the European Union’s highest-profile figure has been told she must “roll her sleeves up” with experts predicting her re-election fight will go to the wire.
Ms Von der Leyen’s political fate will be decided after the European Parliamentary elections between June 6-9.
And with analysts suggesting the next intake is likely to include a larger number of elected officials hostile towards the centre-right former German defence minister, the 65-year-old is facing an uphill battle, says Politico.
One member of Ms Von der Leyen’s own European People’s Party group in Brussels said: “She needs to roll her sleeves up and call everyone. She needs to keep doing it until the campaign ends.”
Referring to the need in particular for her to drum up support from Polish PM Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, and Spain’s Partido Popular, the source added: “She needs to push hard to make Spain happen.
“She needs to push hard to make Poland happen. It takes planning.”
Ms von der Leyen must overcome two sizeable obstacles, according to Politico.
Firstly, she needs to secure the backing of a qualified majority of the 27 EU leaders who will gather for a meeting of the European Council in late June.
Secondly, she must win a minimum of 361 votes from 720 Members of European Parliament who will confirm the leader’s choice during a secret vote in Parliament.
The first part is likely to be more simple, although there is the potential for both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to oppose her candidacy.
But Ms von der Leyen is likely to have a problem securing the support of sufficient MPs, given pollsters suggest the EPP will secure a total of roughly 170.
This means she will need to bag the support of roughly 150 others, drawn from across the political spectrum with many on both the left and the right likely to be hostile to somebody who is the very embodiment of the EU establishment.
Additionally, if she gives too much away to one side, she is likely to antagonise the other.
For example, the Socialists and Democrats (S&D), Renew and the Greens have ruled out backing Ms von der Leyen’s reelection if she makes strikes any kind of deal with Italian PM Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy party.
Given Ms von der Leyen only secured her job by nine votes in 2019, the contest is likely to go the wire, experts predict.
