Trump opens up lead over Biden in new poll of battleground states

Former President Donald Trump has opened up a clear lead over President Biden in new poll of battleground states released Monday.

With his Manhattan criminal trial nearing a climax, Trump leads by healthy margins outside the margin of error in three Sun Belt swing states while Biden is virtually tied in three Rust Belt states that are also up for grabs, according to the survey carried out by Siena College, the New York Times and the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Trump has forged a solid 6% lead among likely voters in Arizona, 9% in Georgia and 13% in Nevada, the poll said. Biden is effectively deadlocked with Trump in Wisconsin and Michigan and leads by a slim 3% margin in Pennsylvania.

Biden won all six states by slim margins in 2020 to oust Trump from the White House.

Winning the three Rust Belt states would likely be enough for Biden to score reelection for four more years by the slimmest of margins in the electoral college.

Other recent polls have painted a more optimistic picture for Biden, although he remains weighed down by poor approval ratings, concerns about his age and dismal views of the state of the economy.

Some political analysts warned against reading too much into any single poll, noting that it represents a snapshot in voter opinions.

“Polls will bounce around a good deal until they finally begin to mean something after the conventions,” University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato tweeted.

Aside from the top line numbers in the six states, the poll underlined Biden’s overall weakness with young voters, Latinos and Blacks, all traditionally strong Democratic voting blocs.

It also represents underwhelming showings in big cities like Philadelphia, Detroit, Atlanta and Phoenix that would normally contribute massive margins to the Democratic presidential candidate.

The poll showed Trump running roughly even with Biden among voters under 35 and Latinos in the six swing states, a result that would be catastrophic for the sitting president if it came to pass in November.

The polls also showed Biden dramatically underperforming longstanding historic benchmarks with Black voters, and especially Black men in big cities.

For example, in Philadelphia, the poll showed Biden ahead of Trump by an anemic 50%-24% margin, which would represent a virtual collapse from his 81%-18% win in the heavily Democratic city four years ago.

Democratic strategists note that the good news from such dire numbers lies in the fact that Biden can close the gap easily by bringing traditional left-leaning voters back into the fold by November.

“This is becoming a very important part of our emerging understanding of the 2024 election, and a dynamic that [is] very ominous for Trump,” said Simon Rosenberg, a relentlessly optimistic Biden backer.

GOP-leaning analystys say Trump is extending Republican gains among working class voters from white voters to racial minorities in what could be a historic political realignmnent.

“Data continues to show serious cracks in Biden’s foundation,” tweeted Shermichael Singleton.

Biden gets poor marks from those surveyed on several key issues notably including the economy and immigration. Young voters are especially sour on the president. Voters who care about abortion rights strongly back the Democratic president.

Supporters of Biden point out that Trump is generally doing much better among voters who are less than certain to vote, while the president performs better among voters who are almost sure to cast a ballot in November.

Recent special elections have painted a similar brighter picture with Democratic candidates generally outperforming expectations when it comes to actual elections, instead of polling questions.

Trump has also struggled to unite Republican primary  voters with Nikki Haley regularly racking up 30% of the GOP vote in affluent and well-educated suburbs that are key battlegrounds with Biden in November.