Vladimir Putin is threatening a new conflict against one of Russia’s neighbours, as fears of World War 3 escalate.
The Kremlin has long given the West notice that it will not tolerate NATO interference in what it regards as its traditional sphere of influence.
Broadly speaking Russia considers all former republics of the Soviet Union as its backyard and a no-go area for the West.
One reason Putin used to try and justify his invasion of Ukraine was Kyiv’s desire to join NATO and forge closer political and economic ties with the West.
The Kremlin has grown ever more alarmed about the actions of its former staunch ally Armenia in the South Caucasus.
Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), a military alliance set up by Putin in 2002, which effectively is Russia’s version of Nato.
However the relationship between Yerevan and Moscow changed drastically last year, when Russia failed to stop Azerbaijan from recapturing the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia suspended its participation in the CSTO and is pursuing a policy of engagement and rapprochement with the West and Nato – much to the fury of Moscow.
The Kremlin issued a blunt threat to Yerevan at the beginning of April after Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan met with senior EU and US officials.
It warned Armenia that the US was trying to “drag the South Caucasus into a geopolitical confrontation” between Russia and the West.
That message was amplified on Tuesday, when Russia’s Foreign Secretary Sergey Lavrov accused the West of trying to strategically defeat Russia by destabilising ”other parts of the post-Soviet space, including the South Caucasus.”
And in the starkest threat yet, the Secretary General of the CSTO warned Yerevan of “confrontation” if it did not resume its membership of the Russian-backed security organisation.
Imangali Tasmagambetov told the newspaper Izvestia: “Secretariat analysts indicate that the balance of power in the South Caucasus may change if Armenia leaves the CSTO, but in this case those regional security factors will come into play, the effect of which is now quite difficult to predict and calculate.
“When discussing the likelihood of a confrontation between Armenia and the CSTO, which I hope is no more than hypothetical, it is necessary to take into account the resource base and real capabilities of the parties.”
The Kremlin is also reportedly drawing up plans to invade Kazakhstan, as it seeks to flex its muscles in the post-Soviet space.
Putin is reportedly furious that pro-Ukrainian forces in the country were able to launch drones to attack an oil refinery in Tartarstan.
