Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent threat to station troops near the country’s border with Finland has been revealed to have a crucial flaw, leading to humiliation for the Kremlin strongman. Despite Putin’s heavy sabre-rattling, analysts argue that Russia’s military capabilities fall short of the necessary strength to enforce such threats effectively.
In a recent interview with the RIA state news agency, Putin lamented Finland’s decision to join NATO, saying: “We generally had ideal relations with Finland. Simply perfect. We did not have a single claim against each other, especially territorial, not to mention other areas. We didn’t even have troops there, now we will.”
However, this complaint rings hollow in light of Russia’s own belligerence, which prompted Finland to seek NATO protection.
Elisabeth Braw, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, highlighted Russia’s inadequacy in her commentary for Politico, writing: “This intimidation attempt will be unsuccessful for another crucial reason too: Russia doesn’t have enough soldiers.”
The inadequacy of Russian military resources has been further underscored by retired Major General Pekka Toveri, a former chief of Finnish military intelligence.
Toveri pointed out that Russia’s military is stretched thin, with troops originally stationed near the Finnish border having been redirected to duty in Ukraine.
Moreover, the operational challenges posed by Finland’s terrain, characterised by vast wilderness unsuitable for modern mechanised combat, further diminish Russia’s capacity to enforce its threats effectively.
Toveri emphasised that Russia lacks the necessary infrastructure, heavy weaponry, and trained forces to mount a credible threat along the Finnish border.
Compounding Russia’s military woes are reports of resorting to unconventional measures, such as recruiting prison inmates and relying on paramilitary groups like the Wagner Group, notorious for their lack of discipline and effectiveness in combat.
Despite Putin’s aspirations to expand Russia’s armed forces, doubts persist regarding the feasibility of sustaining such growth, particularly in the face of recruitment challenges and the high casualty rates experienced in conflicts like the ongoing war in Ukraine.
As rumours swirl about the Kremlin’s potential plans for another round of mobilisation, Putin’s bluster regarding troop deployments near Finland’s border appears increasingly hollow.
