The upcoming hurricane season could be one for the record books with “activity well above the 1991-2020 average,” hurricane forecasters at Colorado State University said Thursday.
“We anticipate that the 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season will be extremely active,” the team of researchers, part of the university’s atmospheric science department, said in their initial 2024 forecast.
According to CSU’s tropical weather and climate research team, 23 named tropical storms, including 11 hurricanes, could be headed our way this year. Five of those are predicted to reach “major hurricane strength” with sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour, experts warned.
That’s way above the average measured over the past three decades — 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes.
The potential record-breaking numbers suggest a link between the rise in global temperatures and an increase in extreme weather events.
According to the researchers, two main factors are contributing to such a sobering forecast.
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic, which are currently at record-warm levels, are expected to “remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season.”
That leads to a “more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment” for both the formation and intensification of hurricanes.
Another contributing factor is the likely development of the climate pattern known as La Niña, which is known to decrease westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic and lead to a more severe hurricane season.
“While the tropical Pacific is currently characterized by El Niño conditions, which typically suppresses hurricane season in the Atlantic basin, “these are likely to transition to La Niña conditions by the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season from August to October,” researchers said.
Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU calls for very active season: 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes & 5 major hurricanes. Extremely warm tropical Atlantic and likely #LaNina are the primary reasons.https://t.co/hp3sqyA3hC pic.twitter.com/JqpmQcqMjE
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 4, 2024
While the forecast is intended to provide the best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season, the research team said it’s not an exact measure. However, coastal residents are still warned to take proper precautions.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” Michael Bell, professor of atmospheric science at CSU and one of the forecast’s authors, told the Daily News in a statement.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
